Peter W. Stoner
When it comes to testing the truth of biblical prophecy, few names are as important—or as mathematically rigorous—as Peter W. Stoner. A respected mathematician and professor of science at Pasadena City College and Westmont College, Stoner was also the chairman of the departments of mathematics and astronomy. His book Science Speaks applies the principles of probability theory to biblical prophecy in a way that is both accessible and scientifically grounded. What sets his work apart is that it was reviewed and verified by the American Scientific Affiliation, a body of qualified scientists who affirmed that his approach to estimating odds was both conservative and statistically sound. But why does this matter? Because if even a handful of prophecies written centuries before Christ were fulfilled with precision, and the odds of that happening by chance are astronomically low, then we’re not just looking at ancient poetry—we’re staring at the mathematical fingerprint of the divine. This is not just a religious question—it’s a logical and evidential problem that demands attention.
📜 How Many Prophecies Are in the Bible?
The Bible contains over 2,500 prophetic statements, of which about 2,000 have already been fulfilled with remarkable accuracy. The remaining deal with end times and the return of Christ. These prophecies range from specific predictions (like the place of Jesus’ birth) to broader geopolitical forecasts (such as the rise and fall of empires).
Many of these are messianic—over 300 prophecies relate directly to the life, death, and resurrection of Jesus Christ.
🧪 How Do We Know These Prophecies Predate the Events?
1. The Dead Sea Scrolls
- Discovered between 1946–1956 near Qumran, these ancient manuscripts contain parts of every Old Testament book except Esther.
- Most importantly, they include a complete copy of the book of Isaiah, dated to around 125 BC—centuries before Jesus was born.
- This disproves claims that the prophecies were written after the events took place.
2. Carbon Dating and Paleography
- The scrolls have been carbon-dated and analyzed by handwriting experts, both confirming that they were written well before Christ’s time.
- This gives us archaeological and scientific certainty that the messianic prophecies existed long before their fulfillment.
🎯 Just 10 Prophecies About Jesus—What Are the Odds?
Let’s consider just 10 specific prophecies about Jesus:
- Born in Bethlehem (Micah 5:2)
- Preceded by a messenger (Isaiah 40:3)
- Entered Jerusalem on a donkey (Zechariah 9:9)
- Betrayed by a friend (Psalm 41:9)
- Sold for 30 pieces of silver (Zechariah 11:12)
- Money thrown in the temple and used to buy a potter’s field (Zechariah 11:13)
- Silent before His accusers (Isaiah 53:7)
- Crucified with criminals (Isaiah 53:12)
- Pierced in hands and feet (Psalm 22:16)
- Buried with the rich (Isaiah 53:9)
These were written hundreds of years before Jesus’ birth, yet every one was fulfilled in the New Testament accounts.
🎲 Calculating the Odds
According to mathematician Peter Stoner, the probability of just eight of these being fulfilled by one man is:
1 in 10^17 (that’s a 1 followed by 17 zeros)
To visualize: Imagine covering the entire state of Texas two feet deep in silver dollars. Mark one of them with an X. Now blindfold someone and let them wander across Texas. The odds they pick the marked coin on the first try? Same as one man fulfilling just eight of the Messianic prophecies.
When Stoner increased it to 48 prophecies, the odds became:
1 in 10^157 —a number beyond the total number of atoms in the known universe.
These aren’t faith-based guesses. These are statistical improbabilities calculated using conservative estimates and laws of probability.
✅ Conclusion: Coincidence or Divine Fingerprint?
Fulfilled prophecy isn’t just poetic. It’s empirical evidence that the Bible:
- Predicted the future before it happened,
- Did so with specificity,
- And has been verified through scientific dating, archaeological finds, and mathematical probability.
Fulfilled prophecy is one of the strongest rational foundations for Christian belief. It transforms the Bible from a spiritual book into a historical and mathematical marvel—a document that has stood the test of time, scrutiny, and science.
Step-by-Step Breakdown of the Math Behind Biblical Prophecy Odds
📌 Step 1: Choosing the Prophecies
Stoner selected specific, well-documented Old Testament prophecies that:
- Were measurable (not vague or symbolic),
- Were not under the control of the person fulfilling them (you can’t choose your birthplace),
- And were historically verified as fulfilled in the life of Jesus.
For example, let’s examine the prophecy:
“The Messiah will be born in Bethlehem.”
(Prophecy: Micah 5:2, Fulfillment: Matthew 2:1)
🧠 Step 2: Assigning Probabilities (Estimating Likelihood)
Stoner gathered data (historical population, demographics, geography, etc.) to assign conservative probability estimates for each prophecy. These were reviewed by experts from the American Scientific Affiliation to ensure they were reasonable and not biased in favor of Christianity.
Here’s how he assigned values:
| Prophecy | Assigned Probability | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Born in Bethlehem | 1 in 280,000 | Bethlehem’s estimated population vs. the total Jewish population |
| Entering Jerusalem on a donkey | 1 in 100 | Most people would walk or ride horses, not donkeys, for important arrivals |
| Betrayed by a friend | 1 in 1,000 | A relatively rare event, especially with 30 silver pieces |
| Crucified with criminals | 1 in 1,000 | Execution methods varied; crucifixion was rare and grouping was inconsistent |
| Pierced in hands and feet | 1 in 1,000 | Describes crucifixion before it was invented by Persians/Romans |
| Silent before accusers | 1 in 1,000 | Most people defend themselves when falsely accused |
| Buried in a rich man’s tomb | 1 in 1,000 | Criminals usually dumped in mass graves |
| Sold for 30 pieces of silver | 1 in 1,000 | Specific amount and context is rare |
➗ Step 3: Multiply Probabilities Together
Now, to find the odds of one person fulfilling all 8 prophecies, we multiply the probabilities:
1/280,000 × 1/100 × 1/1,000 × 1/1,000 × 1/1,000 × 1/1,000 × 1/1,000 × 1/1,000
= 1 in 10^17 (or 1 in 100,000,000,000,000,000)
This is how Stoner arrived at the 1 in 10^17 figure for just 8 prophecies.
💡 Why Multiply?
We multiply the probabilities because each fulfilled prophecy is an independent event. For example:
- Being born in Bethlehem has no effect on being betrayed by a friend.
- Each is a separate, measurable event—so to get the compound probability, you multiply the odds.
This is a standard method in statistics and probability theory.
🔢 What If We Add More Prophecies?
Let’s say we go from 8 prophecies to 48. Since the probabilities continue to be multiplied, the number explodes exponentially:
- For 48 prophecies, Stoner estimated the odds at 1 in 10^157
- That’s more than the total number of atoms in the known universe (about 10^80)
⚠️ Important Caveats
Stoner took a conservative approach:
- He rounded estimates up (making prophecies seem more likely than they were),
- He avoided any “double-counting” of related prophecies,
- He only used prophecies independently verifiable through secular history.
🧮 In Simple Terms:
Here’s a simplified analogy:
Imagine you write 8 oddly specific predictions on ping-pong balls and throw them into separate oceans around the world.
Now imagine one person dives into each ocean once, randomly, and pulls up the right ball 8 times in a row.
That’s the kind of improbability we’re talking about. Statistically impossible unless someone rigged the outcome—or in our case, orchestrated it on purpose.
Conservative Recalculation: 8 Biblical Prophecies Fulfilled by One Person
Let’s assume each prophecy is more likely than Peter Stoner originally estimated. We’ll round down each probability estimate to favor natural occurrence and reduce perceived “miraculousness.” Here’s our revised list:
| Prophecy | Conservative Probability Estimate |
|---|---|
| Born in Bethlehem | 1 in 100,000 (vs. 280,000) |
| Preceded by a messenger (John the Baptist) | 1 in 20 (vs. 1 in 100) |
| Enters Jerusalem on a donkey | 1 in 50 (vs. 1 in 100) |
| Betrayed by a friend | 1 in 100 (vs. 1 in 1,000) |
| Betrayed for 30 pieces of silver | 1 in 200 (vs. 1 in 1,000) |
| Money used to buy potter’s field | 1 in 100 (vs. 1 in 1,000) |
| Silent before accusers | 1 in 50 (vs. 1 in 1,000) |
| Buried in a rich man’s tomb | 1 in 100 (vs. 1 in 1,000) |
Now multiply the probabilities:
1/100,000
× 1/20
× 1/50
× 1/100
× 1/200
× 1/100
× 1/50
× 1/100
Let’s simplify and multiply it out:
1 / (100,000 × 20 × 50 × 100 × 200 × 100 × 50 × 100)
= 1 / (100,000 × 2×10^8)
= 1 / (1 × 10^18)
🧮 Final Probability:
🔥 1 in 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 (10^18)
Even with the odds severely rounded down in favor of chance, we still get a 1 in a quintillion probability of one man fulfilling just 8 specific prophecies by coincidence.
📐 Perspective: What Does 10¹⁸ Look Like?
- One quintillion seconds = about 32 billion years (longer than the age of the universe)
- If you had a quintillion pennies, they’d stack high enough to reach past Pluto—and back.
- This is still statistically impossible by accident, even with generous odds.
🧠 What About Just 1 in 10?
Just for comparison—if every prophecy was 1 in 10, and you picked 8 of them:
1/10^8 = 1 in 100,000,000
That’s still less likely than winning the Powerball jackpot… twice.
✅ Conclusion (Even with Rounded-Down Numbers)
Even if you try to make the odds more favorable, the probability of one person fulfilling 8–10 specific, ancient prophecies is still astronomically unlikely—unless someone intended it to happen.